The University of Montana has been
in no hurry to announce this year’s enrollment.
When the university puts out the numbers
this week it is widely expected to be more bad news -- another dramatic drop in
enrollment of resident undergraduate students.
There are many explanations for the drop
– an improving economy means more jobs for those without degrees, the
continuing increase in higher ed costs.
UM President Royce Engstrom told the Board
of Regents to not focus too closely on one year’s enrollment, but this will be
the second year UM had significant drops in resident enrollment.
“The enrollment picture is the thing that
keeps me awake at night,” he said.
But another, more provocative reason
could be behind some of these numbers.
Many more prospective students are asking
themselves is a college degree worth it?
Many communities in Montana are
becoming flooded with people holding college degrees, a situation that often
leads to underemployment. Census data from 2012 shows 42 percent of Missoula
residents hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, nearlydouble the national
average.
These numbers must give pause to
residents considering pursuing an undergraduate degree as they will be
competing against many equally qualified people once they graduate.
Perhaps not surprisingly, graduate
enrollment is projected to remain in good standing as many people with
bachelor’s degrees are finding they must pursue an advanced degree to further
distinguish themselves in the workforce.
“There are too many people on this
planet to only have a bachelor’s degree. There is too much competition,” said Alex
Rich, an environmental studies major who graduated from UM last spring.
Rich said in order to land a job in her
specialty of international environmental policy she will have to continue her
education, and is currently looking at law schools out of state.
The choice facing prospective students at UM –
plan on staying in school through a graduate degree or deciding to opt out
altogether –could be a larger trend in American education. Nationwide, over the past ten years students
who have obtained an advanced degree have increased by 40 percent whereas
students who have completed only an undergraduate degree have increased by 26
percent. This distribution is likely to be split even wider and the middle
class(people with only bachelor’s degrees) is likely to shrink.
If students are forced to choose
between avoiding the costs of education or feeling the need to pursue advanced
degrees, what could the implications be? Tyler Cowen, for one, sees bigger
problems ahead.
Cowen, a professor of economics at
George Mason University, recently published a book called “Average is Over”
which uses economic research to suggests broad economic trends could largely
explain these decreases in citizens with only bachelor’s degrees.
“I think we’ll see a thinning out of the
middle class. We’ll see a lot of individuals rising to much greater wealth. And
we’ll also see more individuals clustering in a kind of lower-middle class
existence.” Cowen said in an interview with NPR. The interview can be heard here.
This picture spells trouble for the
widening economic inequality gap amongst the working class and highly skilled
workforce in America because higher education is expensive and typically only
students who come from a family of means are able to pursue higher education.
If Cowen is right, states like
Montana may feel it more as economic inequalities sharpen and higher education
becomes too expensive for residents.
Fewer people may end up pursuing
undergraduate degrees only and many of those who do will do so through online
classes. If those trends continue, Engstrom
might have to resort to sleeping pills.
-NPRinterview:http://www.npr.org/player/v2/mediaPlayer.htmlaction=1&t=1&islist=false&id=221425582&m=221637238
-Missoulian Article on this year's enrollment: http://missoulian.com/news/local/um-has-enrollment-problem-engstrom-tells-regents/article_dd8f396a-20c6-11e3-8db7-001a4bcf887a.html
-Last Year's enrollment stats: http://news.umt.edu/2012/09/092812enrl.aspx
-Comprehensive Student Demographics Breakdown: http://collegeprowler.com/university-of-montana/statistics/
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